November 2014 CropWatch bulletin released. The CropWatch November bulletin assesses the agroclimatic and agronomic factors up to October 2014 that determine crop development and agricultural production. The analyses of environmental and satellite-based agronomic indicators focus on worldwide patterns and zoom into major production areas and countries. The report presents the CropWatch provisional estimates for 2014 production, putting the combined global estimate of 2014 maize, rice, and wheat output at 2,469 million tons and soybean at 295 million tons; for China, these numbers are 513 million (main cereals) and 13 million (soybean). The bulletin’s focus section this time discusses extreme weather events—including cyclone Hudhud in India, El Niño developments, and rice.
Key messages from the report:
- Large areas of central and southern South America experienced a heat wave; crops were affected but yields not severely reduced.
- A relatively severe drought affected New Zealand, the Western Cape area in South Africa, and other southern areas; large positive rainfall departures were recorded for the northern Great Plains in the United States (+61%) and the Mongolia region (+255%), China’s Gansu-Xinjiang (+198%), Uzbekistan (+175%), Kyrgyzstan (181%), and Tajikistan (+311%).
- Most countries reported little changes in cropping intensity, but decreases were recorded in Western Europe (-6%) and South and South-east Asia (-7%), as well as in Cambodia, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom (-18, -14, and -13%), possibly the result of extreme weather events.
- In China, cropping intensity in Inner Mongolia and the Loess region increased, while decreasing—as a result of drought and other unusual environmental conditions—in areas such as the Lower Yangtze region, Southwest China, and Southern China.
- In the America’s, the fraction of cropped arable land increased both in North and South America (+8% and +4% respectively); in the south of Australia this fraction increased by 12%.
- The combined global estimate of 2014 maize, rice, and wheat output is 2,469 million tons: 994 million tons of maize, 756 million tons of rice, and 720 million tons of wheat. Soybean is estimated to reach 295 million tons. Maize and rice outputs are similar to last season’s, while wheat is up 2% and soybean 6%.
- After several poor seasons, favorable conditions returned to the main agricultural regions of South America: wheat production increased 15% in Brazil and as much as 22% in Argentina; for soybean increases are 9% and 4%, respectively.
- In China, the total production of the three main cereals amounts to 513 million tons. When including minor cereals, tubers, and legumes (including 13 million tons of soybeans), total production in China is 564 million tons. Compared with previous year’s output, maize in China dropped 1.1%, rice remained stable, and wheat increased 1.4%.
IntroductionThis CropWatch bulletin summarizes global crop condition developments and agroclimatic factors from July 1 to October 31 2014, focusing on key crop producing and exporting areas and China. The bulletin is prepared by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. The first part of the report includes the cover, table of contents, abbreviations, and a short overview of the bulletin sections.Download
Chapter 1. Global agroclimatic patternsChapter 1 describes the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for rainfall (RAIN), temperature (TEMP), and radiation (RADPAR), along with the agronomic indicator for potential biomass (BIOMSS) for sixty-five global Mapping and Reporting Units (MRU).Download
Chapter 2. Crop and environmental conditions in major production zonesChapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS—used in Chapter 1, and combines them with the agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), and minimum vegetation health index (VHIn)—to describe crop condition in seven Major Production Zones (MPZ) across all continents.Download
Chapter 3. Main producing and exporting countriesBuilding on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 30 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. For each country, maps present an NDVI-based crop condition development graph, maximum VCI, and spatial NDVI patterns with associated NDVI profiles.Download
Chapter 4. ChinaChapter 4 presents a detailed CropWatch analysis for China, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: North-east China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China. After a brief overview including a production outlook for 2014, detailed analysis including maps and profiles for NDVI, VCIx, CALF, and BIOMSS are provided for the individual regions.Download
Chapter 5. Focus and perspectivesThis focus section complements CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4 by presenting a global outlook for 2014 production and other topics of relevance to global agriculture. Section 5.1 summarizes the provisional CropWatch estimates for 2014 production, while section 5.2 presents the standard CropWatch section on extreme atmospheric factors—disaster events—that have interfered with crop production in recent months. Sections 5.3 and 5.4 focus on El Niño and rice, respectively.Download
Annex A. Agroclimatic indicatorsTables in this Annex provide additional information about the agroclimatic indicators—RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR—as well as BIOMSS for the various CropWatch spatial units for this reporting unit. Those units include the Measuring and Reporting Units; the thirty-one main producing and exporting countries; regions or provinces within large countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States; and China.Download
Annex B. 2014 Production estimatesAnnex B includes tables with the 2014 production estimates for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States.Download
Annex C. Quick reference guide to CropWatch indicators, spatial units, and production estimation methodologyAnnex C includes a brief overview of the CropWatch indicators and spatial units (including the MRUs, MPZs, and countries), along with a description of the production estimation methodology.Download