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May 2016 CropWatch bulletin released. This latest CropWatch bulletin presents the first global production estimates for 2016, combining information from remote sensing data with trend-based analysis. The bulletin further presents an update on the agroclimatic and crop condition for January-April 2016, focusing on crops that were either growing or harvested during this period and covering key global production areas and major worldwide producers and exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. For China, regional conditions and an update on pests and diseases are presented. The bulletin’s focus section highlights recent disaster events, agriculture in Central Asia, and the declining El Niño effect.
Key messages from the report:
- Persistent climate anomalies. Very large spatial climate anomalies started in 2015 and persisted into early 2016; they are likely to subside together with El Niño later this year. This included droughts in South and Southeast Asia, in east and southern Africa (with a severe negative impact on food security), and in central and northern South America. Drought also affected the whole Mediterranean basin, but the link to El Niño is less clear.
- Excess precipitation across a large area. Excess precipitation affected a large semi-arid area from West Africa across the Arabian Peninsula and Central Asia to East Asia. The abundant precipitation in West Africa coincides with a likely early start of the Sahelian cropping season. In Central Asia abundant rain will benefit summer crops and range-land development.
- Drop in China’s winter wheat production. CropWatch puts the 2016 production of winter wheat in China at 111.2 million tons, 2 percent or 2.3 million tons below the 2015 bumper crop.
- 2016 global production estimates. At the global scale, CropWatch production estimates for 2016 depart little from those of the previous season, with a slight 1 percent increase for maize, 2 percent increase for rice, and 1 percent drop for soybeans, while wheat production is estimated to be almost identical to the 2015 output.
Introduction
This CropWatch bulletin summarizes global crop condition developments and agroclimatic factors from January 1 2016 to April 30 2016. Chapters 1 through 4 zoom in from a global overview of agroclimatic indicators (Chapter 1) to detailed descriptions of crop and environmental conditions in major production zones (Chapter 2) and individual country analyses covering 30 major producers and exporters (Chapter 3) and China (Chapter 4). A special focus section is included in Chapter 5. This first part of the report includes the cover, table of contents, abbreviations, and a short overview of the different sections of the bulletin.DownloadChapter 1. Global agroclimatic patterns
Chapter 1 describes the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for rainfall (RAIN), temperature (TEMP), and radiation (RADPAR), along with the agronomic indicator for potential biomass (BIOMSS) for sixty-five global Mapping and Reporting Units (MRU). Indicator values for all MRUs are provided in Annex A.DownloadChapter 2. Crop and environmental conditions in major production zones
Chapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS—used in Chapter 1 and combines them with agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF) and maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx)—to describe crop and environmental conditions in six global major production zones (MPZ).DownloadChapter 3. Main producing and exporting countries
Building on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 30 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. For each country, maps and figures present NDVI-based crop condition development, maximum VCI, and spatial NDVI patterns with associated NDVI profiles. Additional information about the various indicators by country and 2016 production estimates for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States are provided in Annexes A and B, respectively.DownloadChapter 4. China
Chapter 4 presents a detailed CropWatch analysis for China, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China. In this bulletin, the chapter present an overview of 2016 winter crops production estimates for China and detailed analyses for the individual regions. An update on agricultural pests and diseases in China is also included. Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are provided in table A.11 in Annex A.DownloadChapter 5. Focus and perspectives
This focus section complements CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4 by presenting additional information about topics of interest to global agriculture. This issue includes the production outlook for 2016 (5.1), an overview of relevant disaster and extreme weather events (5.2), a focus on agriculture in Central Asian countries (5.3), and an update on El Niño (5.4).DownloadAnnex A. Agroclimatic indicators
Tables in this Annex provide additional information about the agroclimatic indicators—RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR—as well as BIOMSS for the various CropWatch spatial units. Those units include the Monitoring and Reporting Units (MRU); the thirty-one main producing and exporting countries; and regions or provinces within large countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States; and China.DownloadAnnex B. 2016 Production estimates
Annex B includes tables with 2016 production estimates for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States.DownloadAnnex C. Quick reference guide to CropWatch indicators, spatial units, and production estimation methodology
Annex C presents a brief overview of the CropWatch indicators and spatial units (including the MRUs, MPZs, and countries), along with a description of the CropWatch production estimation methodology.Download
