August 2017 CropWatch bulletin. The August 2017 CropWatch bulletin reports on agroclimatic conditions and the condition of crops that were growing or harvested between April and July this year. CropWatch analyses are done on various scales (particularly including 148 sub-national regions for 31key countries), with special attention paid to the major worldwide producers of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. The bulletin also describes current crop condition and prospects in China-nationwide and by region-and presents an updated estimate for global and national production of crops to be harvested throughout 2017. The focus section highlights the dire situation in the Horn of Africa and presents an update on El Niño events.
Key messages from the report:
- Global agroclimatic conditions. Findings confirm a pattern observed in earlier bulletins of a large stretch of land extending from West Africa to semi-arid Central Asia with above average precipitation. Dry conditions prevailed in the lowlands of the Horn of Africa with precipitation 32% below the average amount.
- Global crop production. CropWatch updates the global production estimates for 2017. They are for maize: 1,008 million tons (up 0.6% over 2016); rice: 748 million tons (up 1.6%); wheat: 737 million tons (up 0.5%); and soybean: 315 million tons (down 0.7%).
- China maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production. Updated estimates put the national production in China of maize and rice close to 200 million tons each (with maize down 3.2% compared to 2016 and rice down 0.1%). Wheat will reach 118,902 thousand tons (+0.3%), while soybean production is put at 13,860 thousand tons (+4.3%), representing the second consecutive increase in soybean production after a decade long decline.
- China winter crops. Total winter crop production in China was also revised to a level close to 2016 (+0.1%), with wheat accounting for 90% of winter crops production. The major winter crop producing area in China, Henan province, produced 26.3 million tons, an increase of 3.9%. Significant drops in winter crop production occurred in Anhui (-7.8%), Shaanxi (-4.8%), and Jiangsu (-3.9%) provinces.
- China pests and diseases. Impact of pests and diseases was relatively moderate during mid to late July 2017 in the main rice regions of China. Affected by severe rain and storms, habitat conditions in the fields were conducive to rice planthopper and rice leaf roller migration.
IntroductionThis CropWatch bulletin summarizes global crop condition developments and agroclimatic factors from April 1 to July 31, 2017. Chapters 1 through 4 zoom in from a global overview of agroclimatic indicators (Chapter 1), to detailed descriptions of crop and environmental conditions in large production zones (Chapter 2), to individual country analyses covering 30 major producers and exporters (Chapter 3) and China (Chapter 4). A special focus section is included in Chapter 5, covering this time revised CropWatch food production estimates, disaster events, the situation in the Horn of Africa, and an update on El Niño. This first part of the report includes the cover, table of contents, abbreviations, and a short overview of the different sections of the bulletin.Download
Chapter 1. Global agroclimatic patternsChapter 1 describes the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for rainfall (RAIN), temperature (TEMP), and radiation (RADPAR), along with the agronomic indicator for potential biomass (BIOMSS) for sixty-five global Mapping and Reporting Units (MRU). Indicator values for all MRUs are provided in Annex A.Download
Chapter 2. Crop and environmental conditions in major production zonesChapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS—used in Chapter 1 and combines them with agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), and minimum vegetation health index (VHIn)—to describe crop and environmental conditions in six global major production zones (MPZ): West Africa, North America, South America, South and southeast Asia, Western Europe, and Central Europe to western Russia. (See also Annex C for more information about these zones.)Download
Chapter 3. Main producing and exporting countriesBuilding on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 30 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. First, the overview section (3.1) pays attention to all countries worldwide, to provide some spatial and thematic detail to the overall features described in section 1.1. In section 3.2, more detail is provided for each of the CropWatch monitored countries, including analyses by sub-national areas. For each country, maps are included illustrating NDVI-based crop condition development graphs, maximum VCI, and spatial NDVI patterns with associated NDVI profiles. Additional information about indicators per country is provided in Annex A, while Annex B provides 2017 production estimates for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States.Download
Chapter 4. ChinaAfter a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of national winter crop production (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 presents the results of ongoing pests and diseases monitoring, while sections 4.5 and 4.6 describe trade prospects (import/export) of major crops (4.5) and an updated outlook for domestic prices of maize, rice, wheat and soybean (4.6). Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.Download
Chapter 5. Focus and perspectivesBuilding on the CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4, this chapter presents revised CropWatch food production estimates for 2017 (section 5.1), as well as sections on recent disaster events (5.2), the situation in the Horn of Africa (5.3), and an update on El Niño (5.4).Download
Annex A. Agroclimatic indicatorsTables in this Annex provide additional information about the agroclimatic indicators—RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR—as well as BIOMSS for the various CropWatch spatial units. Those units include the Monitoring and Reporting Units (MRU); the thirty-one main producing and exporting countries; and regions or provinces within large countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States; and China.Download
Annex B. 2017 Production estimatesAnnex B includes tables with 2017 CropWatch production estimates for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States.Download
Annex C. Quick reference guide to CropWatch indicators, spatial units and methodologiesAnnex C presents a brief overview of the CropWatch indicators and spatial units (including the MRUs, MPZs, and countries, 148 sub-national regions for the 31 keycountries), along with a description of the CropWatch production estimation methodology and methodology to determine the severity of the occurrence.Download