May 2018 CropWatch Bulletin is based mainly on current remote sensing inputs in addition to detailed and spatially accurate reference data about crops and their management. The scope is global and comprehensive. 11 countries were added to improve the focus on Africa and Asia. Focusing on the months of January to April 2018, chapters cover global, national, and regional-level agroclimatic conditions and the condition of crops that were growing or harvested during this time. Pests and diseases for winter wheat in north hemisphere was newly included. For China, the bulletin presents China crop production, crop conditions for each of seven key agro-ecological zones, regional impacts of pests and diseases as well as trade prospects (import/export) of major crops. The focus section reports on food production estimates, recent disaster events with an impact on agriculture, the perspectives in Mediterranean Agriculture, and the possibility of an El Niño event.
Key messages from the report:
- Global agroclimatic patterns: Low sunshine was one of the major and largest global features of the reporting period.Another dominant and continent-wide feature was cooler than average Equatorial and tropical areas.
- Global crop production: CropWatch estimates the global 2018 production of the major commodities at 1045 million tonnes of maize, up 1.8% over 2017, 745 millions for rice (up 0.6%), 697 million tonnes of wheat (a 3.2% drop below 2017) and 323 million tonnes of soybeans, virtually equivalent to 2017 (-0.1%).
- China crop production: Winter wheat production is forecast at 112.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.3 million tons or 2.8% below 2017. CropWatch puts the total winter crop production at 122.8 million tons, a 2.8 percent decrease from the 2017’s bumper production.
- Disaster: Globally, the impact of disasters was relatively limited this reporting period
- El Niño: El Nino conditions have been neutral across the Pacific Ocean during the first quarter of 2018.
IntroductionThis CropWatch bulletin summarizes global crop condition developments and agroclimatic factors from January 1 to April 30, 2018 through 4 zoom in from a global overview of agroclimatic indicators (Chapter 1) to detailed descriptions of crop and environmental conditions in large production zones (Chapter 2), to individual country analyses covering 41 major producers and exporters including agro-ecological zones (Chapter 3) and China (Chapter 4). A special focus section is included in Chapter 5, covering crop production for 2018, disaster events, focus on the Perspectives in Mediterranean Agriculture and an update on El Niño. This first part of the report includes the cover, table of contents, abbreviations, a short overview of the different sections of the bulletin and executive summary.Download
Chapter 1. Global agroclimatic patternsChapter 1 describes the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for rainfall (RAIN), temperature (TEMP), and radiation (RADPAR), along with the agronomic indicator for potential biomass (BIOMSS) for sixty-five global Mapping and Reporting Units (MRU). Indicator values for all MRUs are provided in Annex A.Download
Chapter 2. Crop and environmental conditions in major production zonesChapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS—used in Chapter 1 and combines them with agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), and minimum vegetation health index (VHIn)—to describe crop and environmental conditions in six global major production zones (MPZ): West Africa, North America, South America, South and southeast Asia, Western Europe, and Central Europe to western Russia. (See also Annex C for more information about these zones.)Download
Chapter 3. Main producing and exporting countriesBuilding on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 41 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. First, the overview section (3.1) pays attention to all countries worldwide, to provide some spatial and thematic detail to the overall features described in section 1.1. In section 3.2, more detail is provided for each of the CropWatch monitored countries, including analyses by key agro-ecological zones within the country. For each country, maps are included illustrating NDVI-based crop condition development graphs, maximum VCI, and spatial NDVI patterns with associated NDVI profiles. Additional information about indicators per country is provided in Annex A, while Annex B provides 2018 production estimates for select countries at provincial/state level.Download
Chapter 4. ChinaAfter a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 describes the China crop production (4.2) and the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 presents the results of ongoing pests and diseases monitoring, while sections 4.5 describe trade prospects (import/export) of major crops. Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.Download
Chapter 5. Focus and perspectivesBuilding on the CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4, this chapter presents first early outlook of crop production for 2018 (section 5.1), as well as sections on recent disaster events (section 5.2), the perspectives in Mediterranean Agriculture (5.3) and an update on El Niño (5.4).Download
Annex A. Agroclimatic indicatorsTables in this Annex provide additional information about the agroclimatic indicators—RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR—as well as BIOMSS for the various CropWatch spatial units. Those units include the Monitoring and Reporting Units (MRU); the thirty-one main producing and exporting countries; and regions or provinces within large countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States; and China.Download
Annex B. 2018 Production estimatesAnnex B includes tables with 2018 CropWatch production estimates for Argentina, Brazil, and the United States.Download
Annex C. Quick reference guide to CropWatch indicators, spatial units and methodologiesAnnex C presents a brief overview of the CropWatch indicators and spatial units (including the MRUs, MPZs, and countries), along with a description of the CropWatch production estimation methodology and methodology to determine the severity of the occurrence.Download