This bulletin features the latest production outlook for the major producers in the southern hemisphere and some isolated northern hemisphere countries where crop development is sufficiently advanced.. Focusing on the months of October 2018 to January 2019, chapters cover global, national, and regional-level agroclimatic conditions and the condition of crops that were growing or harvested during this time. For China, the bulletin presents crop conditions for each of seven key agro-ecological zones. The focus section reports on recent disaster events with an impact on agriculture, the possibility of an El Niño event.
Key messages from the report:
- Agro-climatic patterns over agricultural areas: global rainfall was above average (4%), temperature was below average (-0.1°C), and sunshine was 1% above average. Most below average rainfall areas with deficits more severe than 20% are consistent with El Niño patterns.
- Agronomic indicators: Unfavorable conditions were observed in Romania (significantly below average Cropped Arable Land Fraction, CALF). Turkey, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Mongolia, Morocco Zambia and Mozambique show large increases in CALF. High Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) values, indicating favorable crops, occur mostly in Asia. The situation is mixed in Afghanistan (with lowest VCIx at 0.45 among 42 key countries, but 25% above average CALF).
- China: agro-climatic conditions were generally below average with deficits of rainfall (7%) and sunshine (6%). Temperature was average but the nationwide CALF fell 2% below the average value of the previous five years
- Production outlook: the reporting period saw the harvest of wheat in the Southern Hemisphere. Production of maize in Argentina and Mexico is above last year’s output (9% and 21%, respectively) while South Africa suffered a marked drop (-14%); production of wheat in Australia suffered a marked drop as well (-13%), and so did Argentina (-3%).
IntroductionThis CropWatch bulletin summarizes global crop condition developments and agroclimatic factors from October 1, 2018 to January 31, 2019 through 4 zoom in from a global overview of agroclimatic indicators (Chapter 1) to detailed descriptions of crop and environmental conditions in large production zones (Chapter 2), to individual country analyses covering 42 major producers and exporters including agro-ecological zones (Chapter 3) and China (Chapter 4). A special focus section is included in Chapter 5, covering crop production for 2018-2019 for countries in Southern Hemisphere, disaster events, and an update on El Niño. This first part of the report includes the cover, table of contents, abbreviations, a short overview of the different sections of the bulletin and executive summary.Download
Chapter 1. Global agroclimatic patternsChapter 1 describes the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for rainfall (RAIN), temperature (TEMP), and radiation (RADPAR), along with the agronomic indicator for potential biomass (BIOMSS) for sixty-five global Mapping and Reporting Units (MRU). Indicator values for all MRUs are provided in Annex A.Download
Chapter 2. Crop and environmental conditions in major production zonesChapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS—used in Chapter 1 and combines them with agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), and minimum vegetation health index (VHIn)—to describe crop and environmental conditions in six global major production zones (MPZ): West Africa, North America, South America, South and southeast Asia, Western Europe, and Central Europe to western Russia. (See also Annex C for more information about these zones.)Download
Chapter 3. Main producing and exporting countriesBuilding on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 41 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. First, the overview section (3.1) pays attention to all countries worldwide, to provide some spatial and thematic detail to the overall features described in section 1.1. In section 3.2, more detail is provided for each of the CropWatch monitored countries, including analyses by key agro-ecological zones within the country. Additional information about indicators per country is provided in Annex A, while Annex B provides 2018-2019 production estimates for select countries at provincial/state level.Download
Chapter 4. ChinaAfter a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.2). Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.Download
Chapter 5. Focus and perspectivesBuilding on the CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4, this chapter presents first early outlook of crop production for 2018-2019 for countries in Southern Hemisphere (section 5.1), as well as sections on recent disaster events (section 5.2), and an update on El Niño (5.3).Download
Annex A. Agroclimatic indicatorsTables in this Annex provide additional information about the agroclimatic indicators—RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR—as well as BIOMSS for the various CropWatch spatial units. Those units include the Monitoring and Reporting Units (MRU); the thirty-one main producing and exporting countries; and regions or provinces within large countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States; and China.Download
Annex B. 2018-2019 Production estimatesAnnex B includes tables with 2018-2019 CropWatch production estimates for Argentina, Brazil, and Australia.Download
Annex C. Quick reference guide to CropWatch indicators, spatial units and methodologiesAnnex C presents a brief overview of the CropWatch indicators and spatial units (including the MRUs, MPZs, and countries), along with a description of the CropWatch production estimation methodology and methodology to determine the severity of the occurrence.Download