This bulletin features the latest and CropWatch estimates for 2017-2018 wheat production for Southern Hemisphere. Focusing on the months of October 2017 to January 2018, chapters cover global, national, and regional-level agroclimatic conditions and the condition of crops that were growing or harvested during this time. For China, the bulletin presents crop conditions for each of seven key agro-ecological zones, regional impacts of pests and diseases as well as trade prospects (import/export) of major crops. The focus section reports on recent disaster events with an impact on agriculture, the possibility of an El Niño event, and the perspectives in crop production in Africa.
Key messages from the report:
- Global agroclimatic patterns: global rainfall was above average (8%), temperature was close to average (-0.1°C), but sunshine was 4% below average, with lowest values in Baltic sea and significantly low values in parts of China, Japan and Korean peninsula.
- Many regions suffered from drought, these are: southern Cone of Latin America, Southern Africa, East African Highlands, New-Zealand, Large regions in Mediterranean, the Middle East and western Asia, eastern Asia, and western coast of North America.
- Agronomic indicators: CALF and VCIx for 30 major food producing countries of the world also indicate lower crop performance in many countries. Lower values are reported for Iran (0.51), Pakistan (0.67), Australia (0.67), Kazakhstan (0.67), and South Africa (0.68).
- In China rainfall as well as RADPAR was lower by -5% and -12% respectively. Heavy snow in winter wheat producing areas would benefit crops. Total winter crops planted area was 3% lower compared with 2016-2017 according to the latest remote sensing observations.
- The reporting period saw wheat crop harvesting in the Southern Hemisphere. Brazil was the only country with increased (+4.4%) production among the four while Argentina (-4.7%), Australia (-22.1%) and South Africa (-20.4%) all had lower harvest.
IntroductionThis CropWatch bulletin summarizes global crop condition developments and agroclimatic factors from October 1, 2017 to January 31, 2018 through 4 zoom in from a global overview of agroclimatic indicators (Chapter 1) to detailed descriptions of crop and environmental conditions in large production zones (Chapter 2), to individual country analyses covering 30 major producers and exporters including agro-ecological zones (Chapter 3) and China (Chapter 4). A special focus section is included in Chapter 5, covering crop production for 2017-2018 for countries in Southern Hemisphere, disaster events, focus on the Perspectives in crop production in Africa and an update on El Niño. This first part of the report includes the cover, table of contents, abbreviations, a short overview of the different sections of the bulletin and executive summary.Download
Chapter 1. Global agroclimatic patternsChapter 1 describes the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for rainfall (RAIN), temperature (TEMP), and radiation (RADPAR), along with the agronomic indicator for potential biomass (BIOMSS) for sixty-five global Mapping and Reporting Units (MRU). Indicator values for all MRUs are provided in Annex A.Download
Chapter 2. Crop and environmental conditions in major production zonesChapter 2 presents the same indicators—RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS—used in Chapter 1 and combines them with agronomic indicators—cropped arable land fraction (CALF), maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), and minimum vegetation health index (VHIn)—to describe crop and environmental conditions in six global major production zones (MPZ): West Africa, North America, South America, South and southeast Asia, Western Europe, and Central Europe to western Russia. (See also Annex C for more information about these zones.)Download
Chapter 3. Main producing and exporting countriesBuilding on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 30 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. First, the overview section (3.1) pays attention to all countries worldwide, to provide some spatial and thematic detail to the overall features described in section 1.1. In section 3.2, more detail is provided for each of the CropWatch monitored countries, including analyses by key agro-ecological zones within the country. For each country, maps are included illustrating NDVI-based crop condition development graphs, maximum VCI, and spatial NDVI patterns with associated NDVI profiles. Additional information about indicators per country is provided in Annex A, while Annex B provides 2017-2018 production estimates for select countries at provincial/state level.Download
Chapter 4. ChinaAfter a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.2). Section 4.3 presents the results of ongoing pests and diseases monitoring, while sections 4.4 describe trade prospects (import/export) of major crops (4.4). Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.Download
Chapter 5. Focus and perspectivesBuilding on the CropWatch analyses presented in chapters 1 through 4, this chapter presents first early outlook of crop production for 2017-2018 for countries in Southern Hemisphere (section 5.1), as well as sections on recent disaster events (section 5.2), the perspectives in crop production in Africa (5.3) and an update on El Niño (5.4).Download
Annex A. Agroclimatic indicatorsTables in this Annex provide additional information about the agroclimatic indicators—RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR—as well as BIOMSS for the various CropWatch spatial units. Those units include the Monitoring and Reporting Units (MRU); the thirty-one main producing and exporting countries; and regions or provinces within large countries—Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States; and China.Download
Annex B. 2016 Production estimatesAnnex B includes tables with 2017-2018 CropWatch production estimates for Argentina, Brazil, and Australia.Download
Annex C. Quick reference guide to CropWatch indicators, spatial units and methodologiesAnnex C presents a brief overview of the CropWatch indicators and spatial units (including the MRUs, MPZs, and countries), along with a description of the CropWatch production estimation methodology and methodology to determine the severity of the occurrence.Download